How risky is a random process?

The riskiness of random processes is compared by (a) employing a decision theoretic equivalence between processes and lotteries on path-spaces to identify the riskiness of the former with that of the latter, and (b) using the theory of comparative riskiness of lotteries over vector spaces to compare the riskiness of lotteries on a given path-space. We derive the equivalence used in step (a) and contribute a new criterion to the theory applied in step (b). The validity of the new criterion, which applies second order stochastic dominance to utility distributions, is established by showing its equivalence to the benchmark decision theoretic criterion when comparing the riskiness of lotteries over any vector space. We demonstrate the theory’s tractability via diverse economic applications.     

Does risk sharing increase with risk aversion and risk when commitment is limited?

I consider a risk-sharing game with limited commitment, and study how the discount factor above which perfect risk sharing is self-enforcing in the long run depends on agents׳ risk aversion and the riskiness of their endowment. When agents face no aggregate risk, a mean-preserving spread may destroy the sustainability of perfect risk sharing if each agent׳s endowment may take more than three values. With aggregate risk the same can happen with only two possible endowment realizations. With respect to risk aversion the intuitive comparative statics result holds without aggregate risk, but it holds only under strong assumptions in the presence of aggregate risk. In simple settings with two endowment values I also show that the threshold discount factor co-moves with popular measures of risk sharing.     

Migration and imperfect labor markets: Theory and cross-country evidence from Denmark,Germany and the UK

We investigate the labor market effects of immigration in Denmark, Germany and the UK, three countries which are characterized by considerable differences in labor market institutions and welfare states. Institutions such as collective bargaining, minimum wages, employment protection and unemployment benefits affect the way in which wages respond to labor supply shocks, and, hence, the labor market effects of immigration. We employ a wage-setting approach which assumes that wages decline with the unemployment rate, albeit imperfectly. We find that the wage and employment effects of immigration depend on wage flexibility and the composition of the labor supply shock. In Germany immigration involves only moderate wage, but large unemployment effects, since immigrants are concentrated in labor market segments with low wage flexibility. The reverse is true for the UK and Denmark.     

要素禀赋、政策支持与金融资源配置:产业转移的承接模式研究

本文以商务部认定的湖南、江西省四个加工贸易梯度转移重点承接地为样本,对比分析要素禀赋、政策支持和金融资源配置的异同及其影响,在总结归纳各自承接模式的特点的基础上,提出了"精品园区+核心企业+直接融资+金融助推"的较优模式,认为政策支持是影响承接产业转移的直接因素;要素禀赋的影响力有弱化趋势;金融资源配置是影响承接力和产业结构优化升级的重要因素;对待处于不同生命周期的产业转移企业,承接的工作重点应各有侧重.因此,承接产业转移要与"转方式、调结构"的战略方向一致.注重与本地的产业互补相结合,并需要金融部门的主动参与和服务创新.     

Second‐Mover Advantages with Asymmetric Costs and Information Updates: A Product Life Cycle Perspective

Two firms with asymmetric costs engage in a Stackelberg game under multiple levels of uncertainty with information updating. A product life cycle perspective is employed to reveal when and why a second‐mover may have an advantage. At early stages in the product life cycle, when uncertainty is the dominating factor, the impact of uncertainty may be either positive or negative. As a result, the Stackelberg leader faces the possibility of either overshooting or losing its market leadership position to the second‐mover. In later market stages, when cost is more important, a process‐innovating second‐mover may accrue higher profits. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国人口城镇化的省级行政单元差异分析

基于周一星修正的1982—2000年城镇化数据和2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,本文依据所构建的人口城镇化贡献模型,以省级行政单元为基本研究对象,考察了1982—2005年研究期内不同时段省级行政单元的人口城镇化差异变动情况。主要从城镇人口的相对增长指数和城镇人口增长的贡献率这两个方面来分析各省级行政单元的城镇化差异,按时段将之落实到地图上,并将所有的省级行政单元划分成三个类型,然后将其对应于人口城镇化进程的四个阶段。最后,简单地说明了各省级行政单元在人口城镇化进程中四种类型的转换过程或阶段转变。     

国内外上市公司内部控制信息披露的比较研究

本文对美国、英国等国家的内部控制信息披露进行了梳理和比较,对中国内部控制信息的披露提出了政策建议。     

分析师的盈利预测偏差与本地优势

分析师在金融市场中起着重要的信息中介作用,其信息来源及获取方式会直接影响信息处理的质量。本文从分析师对企业年度盈利预测的偏差出发,基于对分析师与公司地域关系的实证研究,发现分析师在预测那些所在地与分析师隶属的机构同属一个省份的公司时,预测结果更加准确,这种本地优势与公司高成长性及公司国有性质显著相关。研究还发现,我国分析师的本地优势与个人本身的乐观性并无关系,可能更多与信息优势相关。     

基于Falvey模型的H-O第三定理及其政策意义研究

利用Falvey模型推出H-O第三定理及其丰富的政策意义,即劳动丰富的国家或地区出口国际竞争力低的商品,资本丰富的国家或地区出口国际竞争力高的商品.提高工资率或者降低资本租金率可以扩大该国或该地区产品的国际竞争力区域,但不会逆转国际竞争力现状.只有提高工资率和降低资本租金率的政策同时实施,才能够逆转该国或该地区的国际竞...     

源于比较优势的贸易所得:来自中国的证据

本文根据新古典贸易模型中的贸易所得的理论定义,对测算源于比较优势的贸易所得的基本方法及其理论基础进行了回顾和分析,在此基础上利用进出口额的现值与贸易所得的估算值之间的格兰杰逻辑关系,对中国源于比较优势的贸易所得进行了测算。本文的测算结果表明,中国源于比较优势的贸易所得的最大估算值约为GDP的5%。从比较的角度考察,这一结论的政策含义是,主要依赖劳动力资源或不可再生自然资源比较优势的贸易模式已不具备可持续发展性,建立基于动态比较优势的对外贸易战略应成为包括中国在内的发展中国家的贸易政策选择。